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Mobile TV estimates
ADSL South Africa (Broadband South Africa), 24 April
2007
If Mobile TV
estimates provided by research house, Gartner, are remotely linked to reality we shall see a phenomenal increase in
the number of people watching television on mobile devices such as cellphones over the next three years.
According to research done by Gartner ‘…today’s 60-million mobile TV viewers will top
488-million in 2010’ (Mobile TV figure ‘will spiral 800% in three years’, Stones, Business Day, 20 April
2007).
In other words, if their estimates are correct we shall see an overall increase of
over 700% globally in the number of mobile TV viewers over the next three years.
Further estimates from Gartner include:
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Mainstream
service – ‘It will become a mainstream
service in most developed markets, with Japan enjoying the largest audience, followed by western
Europe’ (Mobile TV figure ‘will spiral 800% in three years’, Stones, Business Day, 20 April
2007).
In other words, mobile TV will become a common everyday service in most
developed markets with Japan taking the lead.
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Cellular
networks vs. Others – ‘Its popularity will vary widely from country to country and will be split
between services delivered over the cellular networks and those using broadcasting technologies…’
(Mobile TV figure ‘will spiral 800% in three years’, Stones, Business Day, 20 April 2007).
In other words, not all people in all counties will like it equally, and
it will be delivered via cellular networks as well as other networks that use broadcasting
technologies.
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Largest growth
cellular networks – ‘The largest growth will be over the cellular networks, with today’s
38-million users rising to 356-million in 2010, while the broadcasting method will reach 132-million
people, up from 21,8 million now’ (Mobile TV figure ‘will spiral 800% in three years’, Stones, Business
Day, 20 April 2007).
In other words, growth of over 800% will be experienced over the cellular
networks while the broadcasting method will see growth of over 500% over the next three
years.
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30% will ask for
service – According to Research Director
Carolina Milanesi: “Uptake will not be driven by consumer demand so much as by operators including TV
in bundles as a default service so that it appears free.” ‘She estimates that only 30% of mobile TV
subscribers will ask for the service, while 70% will receive it in a bundle’ (Mobile TV figure ‘will
spiral 800% in three years’, Stones, Business Day, 20 April 2007).
In other words, only 3 out of every 10 mobile TV subscribers will
directly subscribe to the service.
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Consumer
spending – ‘Because the service will be part
of an overall package, the short-term revenue potential will be depressed. In the long run, Gartner
believes, it could make a major contribution to overall consumer spending. The total revenue could
reach $25,8bn by 2010, up from just $300m today’ (Mobile TV figure ‘will spiral 800% in three years’,
Stones, Business Day, 20 April 2007).
In other words, while mobile TV’s impact on overall consumer spending can
at best be described as small at this stage, its expected to make a huge contribution by
2010.
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